overcoming the two-year-old
euro zone debt crisis, with German lawmakers approving a
proposal to strengthen an
emergency bailout fund ahead of a summit
meeting later in the day promoted as the moment for a comprehensive
solution.
The vote to expand the bailout fund passed by a
strong margin in Germany’s
lower house. It followed Chancellor Angela
Merkel’s plea to lawmakers to overcome their aversion to risk and put the might
of Germany , Europe ’s
strongest economy, firmly behind efforts to get control of the crisis, which
has unnerved financial markets far beyond Europe ’s
borders.
“The world is looking at Germany ,
whether we are strong enough to accept responsibility for the biggest crisis
since World War II,” Mrs. Merkel said in an address to the Parliament in Berlin . “It
would be irresponsible not to assume the risk.”
The administration of President Nicholas Sarkozy
of France , who
has also sought to project his intention for a decisive outcome at the summit
in Brussels , said
there was no other choice. “France is totally mobilized and engaged in the
success of today’s summit,” Mr. Sarkozy’s budget minister, Valérie Pécresse,
was quoted as saying by Bloomberg News in Cannes, France, where she was
preparing for a Group of 20 summit there next month.
Nonetheless, fissures and significant
disagreements among the Europeans were still unresolved ahead of the summit,
particularly concerning Italy , the
euro zone’s third-largest economy, where Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi won only provisional support for
economic reforms demanded by his European partners.
The overall euro deal under discussion is
complicated, including a deep restructuring of Greek debt, an injection of new
capital into European banks made vulnerable by exposure to sovereign debt and
an expansion of a bailout fund so that it can ward off a financial panic in Italy as
well as in the relatively small economies of Greece and Portugal .
On several previous occasions, European leaders
have promised systemic changes to resolve the
euro’s troubles, only to come up with a patchwork that fails to mollify the
markets and just delays the day of reckoning. The outcome after the Wednesday
summit could be another disappointment, an agreement on a general plan but
without many specifics, and possibly without the massive “wall of money” to
protect vulnerable Italy and Spain that
the markets have demanded.
In addition, a meeting of European Union finance ministers, set for Wednesday
before the summit meeting, was abruptly canceled on Tuesday, largely because of
continuing negotiations with banks over a reduction in the face value of Greek
debt — a so-called haircut — of up to 60 percent instead of the 21 percent
previously agreed to but considered grossly inadequate by most economists.
The Europeans want the banks to agree to the
losses voluntarily, to avoid a formal default that would incite unpredictable
events. But the banks have negotiating capital, too, and are stretching out the
talks. At the same time, officials in Brussels said, it was difficult to sign
off on bank recapitalization — considered pretty much a done deal — until they
were clear about the real value of the Greek debt in the banks’ portfolios.
The Europeans also want Mr. Berlusconi to live up
to his promises to do more to reduce Italy’s huge accumulated debt — about
$2.65 trillion euros, or 120 percent of gross domestic product, among the
highest in the developed world — and to promote economic growth in a largely
stagnant economy. While Italy ’s
annual deficit is modest, the debt overhang means that speculation is driving
up the cost of financing that debt, which if unchecked, could tear holes in the
budget.
Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy upbraided Mr.
Berlusconi on Sunday for not following through on his promises. But the sense
of urgency about the fate of the euro that is building in other European
capitals seems not to have arrived yet in Rome, where Mr. Berlusconi, hobbled
in an internal power struggle, planned to bring only a “letter of intent” to
make the kind of economic changes that his counterparts want.
The current crisis has placed Mr. Berlusconi
between two irreconcilable forces: his fellow European Union leaders and
Umberto Bossi, the leader of the powerful Northern League, who holds the fate
of the Berlusconi government in his hands and is bound to Mr. Berlusconi like
an inoperable Siamese twin.
For months, Mr. Bossi
had refused to back a plan to raise the retirement age to 67, relenting only on
Tuesday for everything except seniority pensions, still leaving the government
at risk of collapse on the issue. That change had been demanded by the European
Union in return for its support.
The European Central Bank demanded various
changes as the price for buying up Italian debt at a reasonable, nonmarket
price. But as soon as the bank stepped in, Mr. Berlusconi failed to propose a
convincing package of measures, let alone put them into effect, infuriating his
European counterparts and the bank.
Given reasonable progress made by Ireland,
Portugal and Spain to fix their fiscal problems, the vulnerability of the far
larger economy of Italy is the main reason the Europeans are trying to enlarge,
or leverage, their bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility,
which at around $600 billion is considered less than half as large as needed to
cover Italy’s debts. At least $200 billion of this fund is already committed to
Greece , Ireland and Portugal , and
European leaders have not yet agreed on at least two options they are
considering for enlarging the fund.
One idea is to try to attract outside investors,
possibly with the help of the International Monetary Fund, but it is unclear
what guarantees outsiders would demand.
A parallel idea, which could run simultaneously,
is to use the fund to limit losses bondholders might suffer in the future.
However, Mr. Bossi said that he remained
pessimistic about finding a way through the thickets to a comprehensive rescue
plan for the euro.
“The government still risks falling on the
question of pensions,” he said. “Now we have to see what the E.U. says.”
Mr. Bossi added that he refused to budge on a
plan to raise the retirement age to 67 in the case of workers who had worked 40
years and contributed to the public pension plan.
On Tuesday evening, however, an 11th-hour accord
seemed to be emerging under which the retirement age would be raised but people
who have been paying for 40 years could retire.
Details of the proposed growth measures Mr.
Berlusconi will present to Brussels have
not been made public, but Italian news media reported that they would include
privatizations, a liberalization of Italy ’s
professions and a simplifying of bureaucratic red tape.
But some critics dismissed the proposals as
window dressing.
“They will send the letter, but there’s the risk
that they will only be empty promises with no real ability to carry out reforms
if they are still missing a strong agreement with the Northern League,” said
Stefano Folli, a columnist for the economic daily Il Sole 24 Ore.
On Tuesday, Italy ’s
president, Giorgio Napolitano, urged the government to act quickly and “make
our commitment to lower the debt and boost economic growth more credible.”
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